Is any profit in Betfred Double Delight & Hat-Trick Heaven offer?
Betfred (and occasionally Totesport) has been advertising these type of offer quite a lot, especially before high visibility events, and as a matched bettor, definitely is something you shouldn’t miss. A double delight hat-trick heaven offer – DDHH is one of those exciting offers that will give you a high EV (expected value) and is has the potential of being really profitable in long term.
The mechanics of Double Delight Hat-Trick Heaven Offer
The principle of this offer is quite straightforward. The offers condition is to bet on the first goal scorer market for a specific football match – if your player scores first and scores another goal in the match your winnings will double, if is a hat trick the winnings will triple. Usually Betfred will show in their advertisement 4 or 5 important dates in the football calendar which will include their chosen events available for DDHH offer.
As for matched betting, the strategy is to place a first goalscorer bet into your Betfred account and lay bet your chosen player in the “first goalscorer” market at betting exchange.
For example, a winning first goalscorer bet at an odd of 3.0, if your chosen goal scorer has 2nd goal, the winning odd will be 6.0 and if is a hat trick than will be a pay-out for 9 times the amount you betted. As you can see, the profits can be extremely high on this DDHH Betfred offer in the world of “no-risk” matched betting.
Some mentions on the other offer’s conditions: Your player doesn’t have to score the goals one after one, and needs to be during the match 90min. Own goals don’t count for this offer and for example, we had 3 goals and than Hazard scored, the First Goalscorer would be Hazard.
More conditions: If your player doesn’t start and is not on the bench, your bet will be voided (at Betfred and Smarkets). If the player is on the bench but is not used or is introduced after the first goal, your bet will be also voided (back and lay). If your player is on the field, still 0-0 and get’s injured the bet will stand.
However, we wouldn’t recommend attempting this type of offer if your are a matched bettor beginner, or if your bankroll or confidence can’t handle the variance which can occur during the losing streaks.
How to Profit from DDHH
As for any good matched betting opportunity, we need to establish what is a good odd for our chosen event. However, what’s considered a good odds match for double delight hat-trick heaven is slightly different that we would chose for other offers.
As a rule of thumb, anything up to 20% qualifying loss is considered acceptable because in a long term we would still get a positive expected value (+EV). Which means, for any £100 we would expect to loss £20. So, you really need to have the bankroll and a clear vision & appropriate mentality on sustaining potential streaks of losses.
If we are comfortable with this scenario, our payouts for it will be significant and the likelihood of it to happen will still be high enough in long term to consider this DDHH offer, especially when we compare it with other lucrative pay-out offers such as 2UP offers.
A good approach would be to keep the smaller stakes, to reduce the blow of a failed double delight hat-trick heaven offer attempt. An example odds match of the maximum “comfortable” loss you should take are odds between 4-4.5 at Betfred (to back) and 5-5.5 at betting exchange (to lay). This is a around 20% loss with a lay commission of 2% – as basic Smarkets offer.
Best Tips for DDHH
1. Get informed. Be prepared with team news – Make a list of DDHH qualifying teams, check odds one hour before kick off (usually when the team line up is announced – we use Flashscore or Forza) to see any significant opportunities. Be careful as to how you time your bets.
2. Bookie will cut odds as soon the lay markets steams (odds reducing quickly) – If the opportunity is there after team news, be fast an act. You will see cuts within 5-10 minutes after the line up announcement. Sometimes, is possible to get good odds a day before the match; however be sensible and if is the loss margin is in the 20% market place the bet then and there. Betfred often will cut the odds next morning due to their double delight and hat trick heaven offers.
3. Use the physical shops – Betfred will cut odds online fast than will do in their local shops, normally will be a delay of 10 – 20 minutes. If is possible and enjoy a betting shop atmosphere you can take advantage of double delight hat-trick heaven offers then and there.
4. Stick with your 20% margin loss strategy – Sometimes, this type of offer can be teasing. Do not alter your strategy just because of your gut feeling that a particular player will score more goals. The odds usually are aligned with the chance of that player to score first.
5. Consider underlaying option – Most of more advanced matched bettor will advise yo underlay the bet so if the player scores first but without more than 1 goal you will end up with £0 return rather than making a loss. This can help with your mentality status more than with the variance in the long run. You can find a advanced matched betting calculator for this at even OddsMonkey or Profit Accumulator.
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