What is your Matched Betting strategy for casino offers?

Everyday matched bettor, at some point in his journey to achieve financial independence will come across casino offers. So, maybe you are in this position and you ask yourself: Are casino offers suitable for my matched betting goal? How can I profit from casino offers in matched betting? Are casino bonuses as profitable as matched betting? Are there any low risk or high risk casino offers? In next couple of minutes, we are going to answer these type of questions. So, let’s start with..

What Are Casino Offers?

Everybody knows that casino offers are coming in different forms such as welcome offers, deposit offers – you can even get a no-deposit casino bonus with some sites – or reload offers. Reload offers are the offers that are sent to existing customers in order to tempt them back into re-using a casino/bookmaker; in most cases, a bookmaker will have his own casino. As example, the main bookmakers such as Betwin, Coral, Betstars tend to offer ranges from 10% all the way up to 500% bonuses. These casino bonuses are always coming with ‘wagering’ requirements.

What this means? Well, depending on the casino and the size of the bonus, you’ll have to rollover a certain quantity of money. For example, if an offer was a 100% deposit match up to £100 with 25x bonus wagering, you’d deposit £100, receive £100 extra on top, and you’d have to complete £2,500 (25 x £100) worth of spins on slots. If the same deposit match had a 35x deposit + bonus rollover, you’d need to do £14,000 worth of spins. So, please read T&C for each offer before you decide to exploit it.

How to Exploit Casino Offers

First, we need to understand why casino offers are valuable to a bookmaker. As we know, a bookmaker/casino is still in business because of his profit edge, therefore a lot of bonuses out there are designed to make you lose money, either short-term or long-term, even with a no deposit bonus promotion.

The casinos treat the offers as a cost of acquiring you as a long-term customer, and they recoup their money either immediately if you lose, or long-term if you initially win. This can be seen as a losing strategy especially if they will lose money on the majority of the promotions they run, especially on their sign-up offers. However, is actually a winning strategy because they know in long-term, as a customer if you play enough you will actually pay for the upfront their cost of acquiring you as a customer.

Fortunately, your job as matched bettor (with a bit of clever number work and some guidance) is to work out how much of a profit you can generate from that offer based on a casino’s terms; the type of bonus on offer, the value of the bonus, the eligible game types, the wagering requirements, and more.

So, let’s discuss a Casino EV Calculator.

“From 3 December 2019 until 10 February 2020, all new and existing customers will have the chance to earn a £10 risk-free bonus each week. All you have to do is place 5 bets of £10, or more, on Premier League matches (outright markets excluded) to receive £10 risk free the following week..T&Cs apply.”

There are a few EV calculators out there, but the majority of them are having flaws because you don’t need just a simple calculator, instead you will need a simulator. A calculator cannot take crucial variables into account like your spin size and the variance of the slot, etc. Calculators typically just allow you to input your bonus size, the slot’s RTP ( Return to Player) and will give you an output which in most cases is quite inaccurate.

However, are specialized software which can compensate for this inaccuracy – a simulator. We would recommend Profit Maximiser which allows you to see the numbers behind all of the casino promotions that are running. Not only that, but they list every offer they can find too, allowing you to complete as many potentially profitable offers as possible. By using service, you can easily determined whether an offer is a worthwhile your investment or not. If you don’t want their full membership & service you can even try their 14 day trial for £1 or you can pick up EV Maximiser – released by the same company – to simulate the offers yourself.

What is Variance and why is it important in sports betting?

These offers involve something called variance and Wikipedia is describing it as: ” In probability theory and statistics, variance is the expectation of the squared deviation of a random variable from its mean. Informally, it measures how far a set of (random) numbers are spread out from their average value” (source: Wikipedia)

What actually means in matched betting environment? This means, rather than building your bankroll slowly and steadily like you do with matched betting, you will have swings for your profit. Imagine, a graph in where you have steady progression line and one which is going up and down. First line is the matched betting – you have a constant increase from a small bankroll over a time because of low/no-risk, while the second line, the “wobbly line” represents the casino earning – you will see periods with losses as variance plays out. However, in long term this variance is compensated by your profit.

Something you need to be aware, for the casino, you need a bigger bankroll, a really good composure and a strict bankroll management. To exploit this casino offers you will need +EV (Positive Expected Value). In simple terms: this is the average amount of profit that you would receive if you completed the offer millions of times. Let’s say for example, you deposit £100 and you get £200 casino bonus. What would be the offer EV? Using Profit Maximiser or a EV calculator, you will find out that the Expected Value for this offer is +£88.

However, if you were to complete the offer a 1000 times you would have a profit level somewhere around £88 x 1000 = £88,000. Most people will complete hundreds or thousands of offers over a period of months or years which makes them to be less prone to variance. Basically, to combat the variance you need volume. Smaller the sample is, the more variance can affect you either positively or negatively.

“From 3 December 2019 until 10 February 2020, all new and existing customers will have the chance to earn a £10 risk-free bonus each week. All you have to do is place 5 bets of £10, or more, on Premier League matches (outright markets excluded) to receive £10 risk free the following week..T&Cs apply.”

How likely is for you to Bust Out?

At first glance, you will believe that is unlikely to complete wagering on an offer. For example, you deposit £10 and get a bonus of £10, and you have to complete £250 worth of spins before you can withdraw. Is really unlikely that you will complete this offer before you can withdraw your earnings from this offer.

However, it’s not about how likely you are to complete that specific offer, it’s all about how much profit you should expect to make from the offer on average (known as EV, or Expected Value) after completing multiple offers. Again,for the sake of example, let’s say you were doing the offer above on £2 spins. You would expect to bust out around 81% of the time on a 96.5% RTP medium-variance slot, but you would take £12.60 in EV. With high expected bust rates, it’s is really common to lose.

How to find Casino Offers worth hundreds?

As we said this before, we would recommend Profit Maximiser, because they will list all of the offers on their site: hundreds of offers every single month from over 100 different bookmakers and casinos. They calculate the EV for each of these offers and also they offer a private Facebook community where you can discuss any of welcome bonuses, no deposit bonuses, etc.

Access to both of things is private, and you can’t get access to them without paying their membership fee. However, the Profit Maximiser team are offering £1 full premium access for a 14 days trial period or the full membership for £97 + VAT.

You will find two types of profit for the casino offers: (1). Low-risk profits. You are virtually guaranteed to make a steady & consistent profit on these as long as you follow simple instructions. (2). EV profits: an average profit value you should expect to receive from an offer over an extended period of time.

Casino offers are rarely guaranteed profit on one attempt and as an overall should be seen as a risk. However, if you continue completing the casino offers and have a good discipline and follow instructions carefully, you can make a significant tax-free income to boost your bank every month.

How hard is to exploit any casino offers?

Is not that hard to take advantage of any casino offer. Just remember, you need to understand each offer EV, what type of offer is, what are the conditions of wagering and if are any games restricted. Opting for high RTP (Return to Player) slots is advisable, but sometimes choosing a lower RTP slot can be a better use of your time.

Without the help of Profit Maximiser, a lot of it becomes guesswork and you most likely this will reflect into your bankroll. If you decide to do it by yourself, you can use alternatives such as, EV Maximiser which will help you with you own figures. If you have any other free tools for taking advantage of casino offers, please write us a comment below.

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